GIFT Nifty
23,120.50
▲ +0.06%
Market Overview & Analysis
Everything worth knowing before the open — 25 Sept 2026. Weekly expiry 29 Sept 2026 · Monthly expiry 29 Sept 2026.
13 d ago · skipped via --skip-dhan
Dual expiry in two sessions (Tue 29-Sep weekly IS September's monthly) after Thursday's -1.64% crash to 23,063.10 — a five-month closing low with 47 of 50 stocks down — on $106.60 settled Brent, the IRDAI insurance shock and Rs 5,027 cr FII selling; GIFT guides a modest +57 gap-up into a market where October futures just took heavy fresh shorts and the entire near-ATM put shelf was pulled.
Directional bias
2026-09-25 21:15 IST
Informational only — data, levels and scenarios. Not a trade recommendation.
🔴 Bearish· Medium confidence
Scenarios (sum 100%)
Key factors
Alerts
ELEVATED AI bubble: composite 3-of-7 MODERATE for a fourth day with only the narrative flag firing — NVDA intact at +12.82% over its 200-DMA and Polymarket at 98.6% NVIDIA dominance — but the fuel is piling up (10Y 5.162%, 30Y highest since 2004, Oracle force majeure, Burry CRITICAL, Dalio warning) and Mag-7 breadth is down to 2 of 7 below the 50-DMA. The live NIFTY transmission channel is FII flows: Rs 5,027 cr sold on 24-Sep.
ELEVATED Trump/Iran-oil: summit de-escalation (truce extended to 10 Jan, no new tariffs) against a live oil channel — Brent settled $106.60, the Hormuz blockade cuts ~12% of China's imports, and Xi is pushing US-Iran ceasefire talks. Alert stays ELEVATED for day-two summit headlines, not HIGH, because no hostile tariff or Fed rhetoric is outstanding.
ELEVATED Crude vs domestic flows: MCX traders are pricing crude higher (put-writing PCR 1.429, support 9,000, ATM IV ~58%) while the domestic bid is record-strength (Rs 29,328.62 cr August equity inflow, Rs 32,297 cr SIP) — the import-bill headwind and the SIP cushion are both real, so the net is decided by oil's next move rather than by flows alone.
LOW Crowd: /biz/ busy with five market-general threads at 322-373 replies on the crash day but Reddit dark across all five subreddits (429/empty on both attempts) — thinnest sentiment input of the run, verdict held at cautious-not-panicked rather than upgraded on thin evidence.
Risk warnings
Opening guide
2026-09-25 07:46
GIFT Nifty
23,120.50
▲ +0.06%
Implied gap vs NIFTY
57.4
+0.25%
NIFTY prior close
23,063.10
cash reference
GIFT Nifty 23,120.50 in a tight 23,092.50-23,156.00 overnight band, +57.4 pts (+0.25%) above the 23,063.10 cash close and +15 pts above its own previous close. After a -1.64% crash session, holding above the cash close with no overnight follow-through selling is mildly constructive, but the whole gap sits inside the freshly-written 23,100-23,200 call shelf — it is a gap into supply, not into open space. Structure read: yesterday's rally attempt was rejected and lost at 23,446; today's question is only whether 23,000 holds.
Where the indices stand
2026-09-27T15:45:01.085Z
NIFTY 50
23,063.10
▼ -1.64%
BANKNIFTY
55,616.00
no change data
FINNIFTY
25,055.00
no change data
INDIA VIX
12.69
no change data
US · Asia · commodities · FX
2026-09-25 07:43
United States
| Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,704.13 | ▼ -0.02% |
| NASDAQ | 26,939.37 | ▲ +0.01% |
| Dow Jones | 51,349.98 | ▼ -0.31% |
Asia
| Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 66,314.89 | ▲ +1.22% |
| Hang Seng | 24,338.38 | ▼ -1.71% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,888.37 | ▼ -1.22% |
Commodities & FX
| Market | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 105.71 | ▼ -0.83% |
| WTI Crude | 93.10 | ▼ -1.60% |
| Gold | 4,325.80 | ▲ +0.65% |
| USD/INR | 95.94 | ▲ +0.21% |
| Dollar Index | 101.26 | ▼ -0.03% |
US went nowhere after Wednesday's bond rout — S&P 500 7,704.13 (-0.02%), Nasdaq +0.01%, Dow -0.31% — while Europe closed soft (FTSE -0.24%, DAX -0.57%, CAC -0.52%). The live Friday morning handoff is the problem for India: Hang Seng -1.71% and Shanghai -1.22% against a +1.22% Nikkei, with Indian ADRs mixed-to-weaker (Infosys -2.33%, Wipro -2.96%, HDFC Bank +0.18%). Asia is the leg that decides whether the +57 GIFT gap-up survives to the open.
Pivots & moving averages
2026-09-25 07:44
Classic pivots (from the prior session)
| Level | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 23,450.45 | +1.68% |
| R2 | 23,366.20 | +1.31% |
| R1 | 23,214.65 | +0.66% |
| PP (pivot) | 23,130.40 | +0.29% |
| S1 | 22,978.85 | -0.37% |
| S2 | 22,894.60 | -0.73% |
| S3 | 22,743.05 | -1.39% |
Moving averages
| MA | Level | Spot vs MA | Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| DMA 5 | 23,308.24 | -1.05% | below |
| DMA 10 | 23,318.48 | -1.10% | below |
| DMA 20 | 23,644.75 | -2.46% | below |
| DMA 50 | 24,028.09 | -4.02% | below |
RSI(14) — · MACD — · overall trend —
Pivot day is compressed: PP 23,130.40 with R1 23,214.65 / R2 23,366.20 overhead and S1 22,978.85 / S2 22,894.60 below, so spot 23,063.10 opens boxed between 23,000 and 23,200. Trend is plainly down — spot sits below the 5, 10, 20 and 50 DMAs (23,308 / 23,318 / 23,645 / 24,028), -2.46% under the 20-DMA — so rallies stay counter-trend until 23,318 then 23,645 are reclaimed.
Expiry 29 Sept 2026
2026-09-25 07:19
PCR
0.729
put OI ÷ call OI
Max pain
23,300
expiry magnet
Call wall
24,000
194.1 L OI
Put wall
22,000
121.3 L OI
ATM straddle (strike 23,050) implies 22,791 – 23,309 — a ₹259 expected move to expiry.
▲ call wall (max call OI above spot) · ▼ put wall (max put OI below spot) · ◆ max pain
| Strike | Call OI | Call ΔOI | Put OI | Put ΔOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22,000 | 6.3 | — | 121.3 | — |
| 22,500 | 6.6 | — | 88.9 | — |
| 23,000 | 38.9 | — | 117.6 | — |
| 23,050 | 13.5 | — | 27.9 | — |
| 23,100 | 70.7 | — | 75.9 | — |
| 23,200 | 119.5 | — | 48.5 | — |
| 23,300 | 116.6 | — | 55.5 | — |
| 23,400 | 105.2 | — | 40.3 | — |
| 23,500 | 135.7 | — | 54.5 | — |
| 23,600 | 80.8 | — | 14.5 | — |
| 24,000 | 194.1 | — | 46.1 | — |
| 24,500 | 127.0 | — | 20.1 | — |
The chain was rewritten in one session: +708.8 lakh shares of net call OI against a flat put book, with fresh calls poured at 23,100 (+65.0L), 23,200 (+104.8L) and 23,300 (+75.0L) — a ceiling built 37-437 points above spot. Meanwhile the entire near-ATM put shelf was pulled (23,400 -75.7L, 23,300 -36.6L) and the floor was repositioned to 22,000, which added 48.0L to become the wall at 121.3L. The verified cohort agrees on the box but sits light: 37.8% bull-side quantity (keys signal BEARISH), short calls concentrated at 23,450 (18,330 lots) and short puts at 22,900 (5,395 lots), cohort max pain 23,000.
Chain from the daily collection keys (scraped) — no live change-in-OI or implied volatility. Configure DhanHQ credentials for a live chain.
OI buildup read
2026-09-25 07:19
| Index | Expiry | LTP | Chg | OI | OI Δ | OI Δ% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY | 2026-09-29 | 23,108.60 | -1.46% | 140.2 L | -15.4 L | -9.90% | Long Unwind |
| BANKNIFTY | 2026-09-29 | 55,616.00 | -1.89% | 17.7 L | -0.5 L | -2.65% | Long Unwind |
| FINNIFTY | 2026-09-29 | 25,055.00 | -2.11% | 0.3 L | -0.0 L | -1.90% | Long Unwind |
| MIDCPNIFTY | 2026-09-29 | 14,045.30 | -3.60% | 22.8 L | -3.9 L | -14.64% | Long Unwind |
| NIFTYNXT50 | 2026-09-29 | 71,528.60 | -1.30% | 0.1 L | -0.0 L | -20.91% | Long Unwind |
| SENSEX | 2026-10-29 | 74,439.75 | -1.33% | — | — | +157.40% | Short buildup |
Rows marked with a dash are partial — the percentage is published but the absolute OI/volume is not (BSE contracts publish no bhavcopy on this feed).
Front-month (29-Sep) index futures show textbook roll-off: NIFTY OI -9.90% with volume +146%, BANKNIFTY -2.65%, MIDCPNIFTY -14.64%, all price-down/OI-down = long unwinding into Tuesday's settlement. The directional bet is in October, where NIFTY OI +47.69%, BANKNIFTY +70.97% and MIDCPNIFTY +458.45% against falling prices = aggressive fresh short buildup, a complete reversal of 23-Sep's fresh longs. Monthly PCR has collapsed to 0.722 (from 1.016) and FIIs run an 11.01% index-futures long ratio after selling Rs 5,027 cr cash.
Recession and valuation flags
2026-09-25 06:29
| # | Indicator | Value | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10Y-2Y spread | 0.31 pp | — |
| 2 | 10Y-3M spread | 0.94 pp | — |
| 3 | NY Fed recession prob | 13.88% | — |
| 4 | Sahm Rule | -0.07 | — |
| 5 | HY OAS | 273 bps | — |
| 6 | IG OAS | 77 bps | — |
| 7 | VIX term structure | contango | — |
| 8 | Shiller CAPE | 41.25 | ⚠ |
| 9 | Buffett indicator | 244% | ⚠ |
| 10 | Margin debt YoY | — | |
| 11 | TED spread | discontinued | — |
The US curve stays positively sloped — 10Y-2Y at +0.31 pp and 10Y-3M at +0.94 pp (both 24-Sep) — so there is no recession inversion flashing. The level, not the shape, is the story: the 10-year at 5.162% with the 30-year at its highest since 2004 (cluster 15) is the discount-rate shock that took equities sideways overnight.
HY OAS 273 bps and IG OAS 77 bps (23-Sep) are both deep inside normal ranges, and the NY Fed 12-month recession probability is 13.88% with the Sahm Rule at -0.07. Credit markets are not confirming the equity/rates stress — this is a valuation-and-rates event, not a credit event.
Times in IST
2026-09-25 06:28
Today
| Date | Time | Event | Impact | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sept 2026 | 14:45 IST | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | High | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 05:25 IST | President Trump Speaks | Medium | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 19:30 IST | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 47.4 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 19:30 IST | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 04:31 IST | GfK Consumer Confidence | Low | -16 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 10:30 IST | BOJ Core CPI y/y | Low | 1.5% |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 11:30 IST | German GfK Consumer Climate | Low | -27.1 |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 13:30 IST | M3 Money Supply y/y | Low | 3.5% |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 13:30 IST | Private Loans y/y | Low | 3.2% |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 14:45 IST | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 18:00 IST | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | 0.6% |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 18:00 IST | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | -0.3% |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 18:50 IST | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 23:30 IST | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | — |
| 25 Sept 2026 | 04:31 IST | Bank Holiday | Holiday | — |
Today's calendar is thin and US-skewed: revised UoM consumer sentiment at 19:30 IST (forecast 47.4 vs 47.8), core durable goods at 18:00 IST, BOE Governor Bailey at 14:45 IST and three FOMC speakers through the session. ForexFactory flags no high/medium-impact events for the rest of the week, so scheduled risk is second-order — the live variables are crude headlines and the summit's day-two readout.
What moved the index
2026-09-25 07:44
Top pullers
| Stock | Points |
|---|---|
| Cipla | +1.98 |
| Oil and Natural Gas Corporation | +1.78 |
| NTPC | +0.62 |
Top draggers
| Stock | Points |
|---|---|
| Reliance Industries | -41.95 |
| Bajaj Finance | -36.22 |
| Axis Bank | -35.49 |
| HDFC Bank | -27.87 |
| Bharti Airtel | -25.36 |
Top-N lists: 3 advancing vs 5 declining · net contribution -384.12 pts
A breadth collapse, not a sector rotation: 47 of 50 stocks fell, net contribution -384.12 pts against the index's own -383.70. Reliance -41.95, Bajaj Finance -36.22, Axis Bank -35.49, HDFC Bank -27.87 and Bharti Airtel -25.36 did the damage while the only three green names (Cipla, ONGC, NTPC) added a combined 4.38 pts. The index fell on its weights, which means today's bounce attempt lives or dies in the same five names.
Domestic vs FII/DII
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DhanHQ provides no FII/DII daily cash-flow endpoint and no market-breadth feed. This panel is sourced from the daily collection keys, not from DhanHQ.
Overnight headlines
2026-09-25 06:28
US
India
Nifty
Who is leaning which way
Nifty Buddy
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Crowd
[object Object]
Polymarket
[object Object]
Full disclosure
Built by scripts/fetch-dashboard.mjs from the daily collection keys for 2026-09-25 plus that day's narrative report.
DhanHQ: skipped via --skip-dhan
DhanHQ provides no FII/DII daily cash-flow endpoint and no market-breadth feed. This panel is sourced from the daily collection keys, not from DhanHQ.
Every number is copied verbatim from a collection keys file or computed deterministically — none is hand-entered. Built 21:15 IST (13 d ago).